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Prime Minister Juha Sipilä’s UKK lecture at the Paasikivi Society on 3 September 2015

Government Communications Department
Publication date 3.9.2015 18.10
Speech

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“Time for decisions”

Ladies and Gentlemen,

It is an honour for me to be allowed to give this UKK lecture at the distinguished Paasikivi Society today, the birthday of President Kekkonen.

Let me thank Chairman Vanhanen once again for the invitation.

At the beginning of my lecture, it seems appropriate to share one Kekkonen memory. My father often recalled President Kekkonen’s visit to Puolanka in 1975. Kekkonen was inaugurating a Home for Forestry Workers there. The bishop was late for the event and my father delayed the start of the ceremony to give the bishop time to arrive. After a minute of silence had passed, the President commented – who are we still waiting for? Then the ceremony got under way. I remember that visit myself.

As I prepared this speech, I also recalled 1975 from another perspective. Finland’s economy was then in a situation in which Kekkonen had to force through the formation of a national emergency government. In his speech at that time, he stated, among other things:

“For years now, we have spent more than we have earned, and the situation in this respect will not improve without corrective measures.”

“Our country’s financial situation is currently more difficult than commonly seems to be understood.”

“Economic activity and employment in recent years have been maintained by large foreign borrowing, the prerequisites for which no longer exist.”

In time, we recovered from that situation, just as we must also recover now. In 1952 President Kekkonen wondered whether our country had the  resolve to prosper – now we must have such steadfastness to rebuild the foundation of our prosperity.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I have recently had to talk a lot about crisis awareness and the necessity of reforms – which I’m sure has not gone unnoticed by you as well. My message has, I believe, been very clear.

I think it is very important, however, that our societal debate does not, even in these times, get bogged down in casting gloom. The overall atmosphere of our society is such that it is already beginning to consume our energy. It is particularly when times are difficult that we must be able to look forward and outward. Curling up inward narrows the perspective and undermines creative thinking.

That’s why I consider it important that we also speak about Finland’s existing strengths and future opportunities, and that we do all we can to promote them. In this context, I also consider it very important that we maintain our global perspective, with full 360-degree vision.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The current debate about politics and the economy is often alleged to be ahistorical. We don’t know the past, so we make the same old mistakes time and time again. We are trying to reinvent the wheel.

I would argue, however, that at the same time we are also troubled by the reverse phenomenon: being trapped in history. Past practices and conclusions are repeated time and time again. This happens even though the world around us has changed, and is changing further every day.

In domestic policy and foreign policy as well as in the economy, many memories have been sweetened by time. Everything was better in the 70s, the 80s or the 90s. Yes, then we were able to make the right decisions; yes, then we perceived the world more clearly. Similar decisions should therefore be made again.

In this debate, however, it often tends to be forgotten that even the correct decisions of the 1970s were not made based on memories of decades previous to that period. Those good decisions were made realistically in their own time. This is good to remember also today, on the 115th anniversary of President Kekkonen’s birth. We decision-makers of today owe it to previous generations that when making decisions we understand the demands of our own time and of future times and generations.

On the other hand, I do understand, however, the yearning for times past. The world then was genuinely simpler and it was easier for both decision-makers and ordinary citizens to make sense of the prevailing operating environment.

Today, our external operating environment is much more complicated, more complex and moves faster. Yesterday’s truth may already be old today.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

When Finland’s external operating environment has been addressed, the discussion in recent times has – justifiably – focused on our immediate neighbourhood. It has been quite correctly stated that geopolitics and realpolitik have made a return to Europe, if they ever even disappeared from here. We have always been able to keep these facts in mind.

Geopolitics and realpolitik are age-old models for explaining the world that still succeed in explaining many international political events and contexts regrettably well, both in Europe and elsewhere in the world. They remind us of the fundamental nature of power politics pursued by states.

I myself, however, have longed for a debate on our external operating environment also from the wider perspective of what else is happening in the big global picture. An analysis of the so-called long-term major weather patterns instead of studying the local weather.

The rapidly cyclical nature of both politics and economics – where even a quarter of a year sometimes seems a very long time – too often conceals developments that will change our lives fundamentally, either slowly, creeping in through a side door, or directly, crashing in through the front door. These are developments that even a state that is strong in terms of traditional power politics cannot necessarily completely control.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The current migration situation in Europe is a very concrete example of a large development of this kind which has now arrived in our hallway through both the side and front doors. The conflict in Syria has been going on for years, and an ever-growing number of Syrians are understandably striving to flee the country to escape from war and ISIL. The situation in Afghanistan continues to be difficult. In North Africa, there are a number of centres of instability. The hope surrounding the Arab Spring has faded.

All of this has been going on in our neighbourhood for years, but even so no-one expected that this summer hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people would decide to leave in search of security and a better life in Europe. We in Europe have been taken by surprise, even though with hindsight we can say that in some way at least this could have been foreseen. Or more specifically: we all could have listened more closely to those who were able to foresee this.

The scale of the migration issue will continue to grow. We have not yet understood the magnitude of the challenge. Solving problems is always harder if we begin to tackle them when the situation is, so to speak, upon us. But this does not mean that nothing should be done about it. On the contrary, the international community, including Finland, must make tireless efforts to solve the problems that lie behind the migration that results from conflicts and other human suffering. These efforts may consist of a variety of measures; it is not always just a matter of how much money we have available.

My own eyes were opened to the different dimensions of the problem a couple of weeks ago, on a visit to Lebanon. In Lebanon, which has approximately four million inhabitants, there are currently one and half million people, most of them from Syria, who have fled from conflicts in the region. Resolving the situation in Syria, and sustainable aftercare of the conflict, are a huge challenge, but without them the central issue of the current migration situation will not begin to diminish. The situation is not facilitated by the fact that barbaric ISIL benefits from the turmoil in the regional situation every single day. The EU must, in collaboration with other key international actors, do more than at present to resolve the Syrian crisis.

The migration situation tells us very clearly that Finland is absolutely linked to the events of the surrounding world; both to the traditional geopolitics of our neighbourhood and to the stability and human suffering of countries located on other continents. Geographical distances do not hold back global megatrends. We must understand, therefore, what our place is in a world where the tectonic plates of politics, economics, security and human development are in constant motion.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Here in Finland, I now call for humanity, care for people in need, a willingness to help. Human dignity is indivisible. We live in times when bad feelings can easily be vented in the wrong directions. Our welfare society must not become a name-calling society. For this, every one of us has a huge responsibility.

Of course, we must be careful in handling the migration issue. In a large group of migrants, there is also always the possibility that there are some who are not genuinely in distress. We stated in the Government Programme that we would commission a study on the costs and impacts of migration to facilitate discussion based on facts, a better integration policy, and decision-making. In this acute situation, however, the results of this study are not yet available. More important than that, however, is that we now handle the issue responsibly and humanely. I call for a discussion based on facts.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I said at the beginning of my speech that the debate conducted in our country must not in any circumstances turn inward and descend into simplifications. Neither must we get bogged down in casting gloom. It is essential that we continue to see the glass at least half full, if not full to the brim.

I want to ensure that we Finns continue to remember that we are talented, educated, skilled and caring people, and among the world’s best in many respects. I want to ensure that once again we begin to perform at the level that we can and should. To use the old Finnish expression: “In the beginning, there was the bog, the hoe and Jussi” – and now the time has come to dig Jussi out of the bog.

Let’s return, therefore, to the big global picture and to the major underlying trends. To the challenges arising from them – but also to the opportunities. To half-full glasses.

I spoke last week at the annual Meeting of Finnish Heads of Mission and pondered there about the recipe for Finland’s success. I told them that in years past, when I worked in international business and travelled the world, I thought a lot about the unique special expertise of Finns that distinguishes us from others. The special expertise that may also be our competitive asset and open up new markets to our companies.

To my mind, this factor remains, despite all of the current domestic challenges, our ability to solve various tricky problems in a pragmatic way.

What do I mean by these tricky problems? I mean, among other things, precisely those megatrends affecting the world as a whole that no-one can escape. It is therefore better to face them with one’s head up high and the keys to a solution in hand.

As the title of our Government Programme says: I firmly believe that we continue to be and will also be in the future Finland, A Land of Solutions. A Finland that is active, open, international and bold.

Some of you might have heard my previous speech to the Paasikivi Society in May 2013. Some of those who were present might still remember that even then I touched upon the theme of Finland as a solver of problems. I wanted to return to this theme today in a more expansive way, because I think it is now more topical than ever.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

It is not without reason that we have emphasised as much as we have done, the bioeconomy and digitalisation, for example. We have stressed them in our Government Programme and also this week in discussing our current key projects. This, after all, is not only about Finland’s own renewal but also about how we can be involved in the world’s megatrends, solving the tricky problems that arise from them. Such megatrends include climate change, the sufficient supply of water, food and energy, urbanisation, and technological development.

These are not empty words. Let’s take an example. Many of you will surely have followed the World Athletics Championships in Beijing. And nobody, I sure, failed to notice how the athletes puffed and blew not only in the Beijing heat, but also in the Beijing pollution. We should not blame the athletes’ lung capacity for this, but the following facts: with its 1.4 billion inhabitants, China is the world’s most populous country; nearly one in five of the world’s inhabitants is Chinese. Beijing itself has a good bit more than 20 million inhabitants. China’s carbon dioxide emissions are the world’s largest, accounting for around one quarter of the world’s total emissions.

But the good news is that China is said to have invested last year alone over 80 billion euros in renewable energy sources, which was one third of total global investments in renewables.

Enormous numbers, enormous challenges, enormous opportunities. It's a question of urbanisation, climate, energy, technology. If China is choking on pollution, its economic growth is also beginning to cough. It therefore badly needs new ways out of this situation.

Let’s also look at the other Asian giant that is coming up behind China, India – whose economy, incidentally, is currently growing faster than China’s. India’s population is “only” 1.3 billion, but it will overtake China’s by 2030. India’s share of global emissions is currently only around five per cent, but this will evidently rise: India’s government, which assumed power last year, has adopted as one of its main objectives increasing the level of investment in the country’s manufacturing industry.

India, therefore, is strengthening economically, but the carrying capacity of its environment will deteriorate as a result of industrial production, which will probably follow a growth curve, as well as population growth, which will still continue. The air of the country’s capital, Delhi, is not yet as thick as Beijing’s, but its levels of less-visible particulates already make it the world’s most polluted city, according to the WHO.

A Finn vacationing on the shore of a wilderness lake, under a blue sky, may easily look unfavourably on these facts – they should take better care of their environment. But if there were as many Finns as Indians relative to the country’s land area, there would be around 130 million of us. The need for clean technologies in our everyday life would probably seem much greater. It is not worth complaining on the shore of Lake Saimaa; better to do business in clean technologies.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Global megatrends are not in themselves only developments. They also affect the global economy in ways that make mere gazing at GDP growth figures insufficient. And when they affect the global economy, they also affect how the playing chips of world politics are divided. And this way, one can end up travelling to the perimeter of the global geo-economy, and thereby also to the margins of traditional geopolitics. A circle is closed.

And when talking about the margins of geopolitics, I should note that it is by no means by chance that I highlighted above specifically China and India. Besides the fact that they are currently the world’s most populous countries, they are also the countries that dominated the world economy before the Industrial Revolution that originated in Europe. It is clear that their time has come again. And yet another circle is closed.

I challenge you to think about what other circle perimeters surround us, and which of them will be next to close.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

The historical development of the global economy is often described as taking the form of different cycles. It has also been described as waves. Professor of Futures Studies Markku Wilenius has said that there have been six such waves to date. Briefly, one can say that in the first wave a revolution arose from steam machines, in the second wave from the railways. In the third wave came electricity, in the fourth fossil fuels. In the fifth wave the world was revolutionised by information and communication technologies, and now in the sixth wave, which is currently under way, the decisive role is played by technologies that increase the efficient use of natural resources.

What the fifth and sixth waves have in common is that they have made the world deeply interdependent in a way that differs greatly from the first four waves.

Small Finland occupied a back seat in the first four waves. We took and adapted what was given to us. In the fifth, the ICT wave, however, we rose to the top of global trends, as a trendsetter. Now we need to ensure that we remain in the same positions on the crest of the sixth wave currently underway.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I return once again to the world’s concrete development trends. I move, however, from hot Asian cities to atmospheric conditions of other kinds.

It is telling that when the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Finland’s new Government travelled for the first time to the United States and met his colleagues there, this happened in Alaska and Arctic issues were on the agenda.

In the Arctic regions, one can, of course, encounter traditional geopolitical issues, if one wishes: control of the continents and the continental shelves, the marine environment, natural resources. But, at the same time, Arctic issues bring together players that from the perspective of traditional power politics are very different in size, all of whose futures are dependent on climate change and sustainable development. Melting ice is equally wet for everyone.

An interesting additional dimension in Arctic issues is the fact that in the Arctic Council the Nordic countries, Canada, the United States and Russia sit at the same table. They still sit in different combinations, even though on some other global political issues their differences of view are very significant.

Finland will chair the Arctic Council in 2017, after the current United States’ Chairmanship ends. This will provide an opportunity not only to address common Arctic challenges, but also crises under way in other parts of the world.

Some of you might be asking now, whether I will return at this point to reflect on the Paasikivi-Kekkonen line and Kekkonen’s classic statement about the doctors and judges of international politics. A doctor’s coat surely still suits Finland better than a judge’s robe – but this doctor knows exactly in which municipal health centre she is working and which kind of ailments she generally is best at treating.

In past decades, Finland’s foreign policy operating environment was difficult and our room for manoeuvre was small. In the early 1990s, there began for a couple of decades a new period when the operating environment was full of hope, and we had full room for manoeuvre in our foreign policy.

During the last few years, we have in this respect again entered a new phase in which our foreign policy operating environment is again full of challenges – diverse, and also new. But we have not lost our own room for manoeuvre. And we will also hold on to it. As I said in my speech at the Meeting of Finnish Heads of Mission: a country possessing good self-esteem can make its own correct choices, even in difficult situations.

A couple of days ago, the leadership of the Centre Party’s Swedish sister party said that it will propose at its October party conference that the party adopt a position in favour of Sweden’s membership of NATO. Sweden’s current Government, however, does not intend to promote NATO membership. We have also renewed with Sweden’s Prime Minister, Stefan Löfven, the old gentleman’s agreement that we will not surprise each other on this issue.

Here in Finland, the policy lines and future steps are already clear. According to the Government Programme, Finland is a militarily non-allied state which is engaged in a practical partnership with NATO, and it maintains the option of seeking NATO membership. The effects on Finland of possible NATO membership will be assessed in accordance with the Government Programme in a future Report on Finnish Security and Defence Policy.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

Members of the Paasikivi Society,

International status and influence can be sought in many ways. Amidst the global megatrends, the central pillar of Finland’s influence is “smart power” – our ability to solve tricky problems in a pragmatic way.

I consider it decisively important that we Finns now look forward with an open mind and upwards with ambition. Both at home and beyond our borders. When the objective is high enough, we will at the same time also grow taller as we seek to achieve it. We should have the courage to raise the bar.

This is a highly important principle precisely today, as we celebrate the birthday of Finland’s 1924 high jump champion, Urho Kaleva Kekkonen.